This interview was written before the start of the recent attacks on Afghanistan.
Nico Schulte Nordholt: 'We should take the Rotterdam councilman, who warned that trouble would break out in his city if Bush should bomb Afghanistan, very very seriously. If the United States takes a wrong step, there is hell to pay.'
A statement? No. Schulte Nordholt, a much consulted Indonesia expert, will not be tempted to bold pronouncements. His opinions are definite, but he accompanies them with thoughtful and detailed analyses. 'I advocate nuanced and differentiated action for all parties. As a consequence I cannot myself afford simplifying one-liners.'
And: 'Every conflict has two sides. I am involved with Indonesia, the largest muslim nation in the world. At the moment T-shirts with Bin Laden on them are selling like hot cakes. Why is that? Professionally I try to put myself in the other's position. I try to look at this tragedy through islamic eyes. But: this does not mean that I speak on behalf of this other.'
Frits Bolkestein (Dutch politician and at present EU commissioner Internal Market) did not speak on behalf of the muslims when he called the islam an 'angry, suspicious, jealous world full of resentments and grudges'. Do you share his vision?
'I did not hear that. If he means that when you look at the United States' Middle East policies of the past decades from the point of view of the muslims, America looks arrogant, I agree with him. But I am afraid that he does not mean that.
'I did hear him say that islam should find an answer to the modernity that cannot be turned back. He is right in that. Fundamentalism is one such answer, only it is one with its back to the Western world. A decisive difference between the west and islamic culture is the latter's lack of self-criticism. Moderate muslim leaders try to create space for such reflection. A time-consuming process. If this conflict escalates, were back to square one.'
The first bullet still has to be fired. The United States are being careful.
'Until now the US are acting sensibly. Coalition building in the Middle East and at the same time increasing pressure on the Taliban. As long as they first prove that Bin Laden is guilty. Muslim leaders like Mubarak and Megawati crave evidence. If America satisfies that need, there is a chance at a global catharsis. If not, the fundamentalist opposition in many a muslim state will declare jihad, at first often against their own government, collaborating with the Americans. It is touch and go.'
Let's look at the Netherlands. The multi-cultural society is under extreme stress for the first time in its existence. Can it handle an attack on Afghanistan?
'That depends on the nature of the attack. If it is rash and not based on conclusive evidence against Bin Laden, I foresee serious escalation. In the Netherlands, but also elsewhere in the world.
'My point of reference is the Moluccas. We saw there how christians and muslims, who had been living together peacefully for years, were within no time at each other's throats. 'Koneksitas' is what the Indonesians call this. In extreme situations a multicultural society can fall apart at high-speed. Muslims and christians - then, and in this case - suddenly are on opposite sides.'
But are we not more sensible in the Netherlands? Kok visits mosques. On television completely assimilated muslims condemn the attacks. Aren't you too pessimistic?
'I fear not. Nobody could have predicted in 1997 that Moluccan society would polarise so fast. Koneksitas is deeply rooted tendency, you can see that at this moment in American society.
'Those well-spoken, highly educated islamic compatriots in talkshows and councils only represent a small top layer. The majority of muslims in the Netherlands does not take part in the discussion. This group directs its satellite dishes to television stations in their home country. And there the attack on Afghanistan will of course be characterised as a zionist-capitalist conspiracy.
'And anyway, Kok visited those mosques far too late. Only when everybody was calling for him to go there, he did so. Bush did that much better.'
You would expect that to be the other way around.
Not really, no. Bush himself is deeply religious. He understands how important such a gesture is. Kok is not religious. He assesses that wrongly.
