Africa will suffer most under global warming

| Redactie

A hearty welcome to Professor Jon Lovett, the new head of Technology and Sustainable Development in North South Perspective (TSD), a division of the Center for Clean Technology and Environmental Policy in the School of Management and Governance. Lovett will divide his time between Twente and the University of York in England, where he serves as Director of the Centre for Ecology, Law and Policy. H

A hearty welcome to Professor Jon Lovett, the new head of Technology and Sustainable Development in North South Perspective (TSD), a division of the Center for Clean Technology and Environmental Policy in the School of Management and Governance.

Lovett will divide his time between Twente and the University of York in England, where he serves as Director of the Centre for Ecology, Law and Policy. He will spend roughly the equivalent of one week per month here at the UT. With research interests that take him all over the globe - from the forests of Tanzania to the tropics of Australia to the moors of Yorkshire - it is hard to imagine what might have lured Lovett to Twente.

Born in Salisbury, England, Lovett was fascinated by Antarctica as a boy. After graduating from Oxford University with a bachelor's degree in botany, his childhood aspiration to visit the frigid continent was to be realized through the British Antarctic Survey. At the last minute, however, the mission fell through, dashing Lovett's dreams. When a friend proposed a job in Tanzania, Lovett unwittingly embarked a 12-year-stay in the African country.

Lovett entered Tanzania a botanist and emerged over a decade later an institutional economist. How to explain the transformation? `In a developing country, you must be able to do everything yourself.' Witnessing firsthand the rampant deforestation by native Tanzanians, Lovett took an interest in Tanzanian law and discovered that the laws dated back to British colonial law of the 1930s, which prohibited Tanzanians from entering the forest. `Outside the forest, Tanzania was the model of African socialism. Inside the forest, Tanzanians couldn't collect water, they couldn't visit ancestral graves. Any activity within the boundaries of the forest was illegal. Consequently the native population became alienated from the forest, opening up the gates to deforestation.' Lovett divulges that hearing people say, `My kids can't walk across the forest' drove him to fight for change.

Lovett learned that `the way forward with conservation is not to just sit there and admire the trees, but through active forest management.' Ultimately he studied law and economics to better function as a botanist. `Usually targets are set by scientists, but not met by politicians. The big question is how to make policy makers take notice? They do listen to economics.'

Lovett describes institutional economics as `the laws of the rules of the game, how organizations interact economically' and specifies one of his professional goals as `getting the rules of the game whereby organizations interact efficiently and equitably.' His experience in Tanzania shows that this is never simple. Eventually the laws were modified to allow native Tanzanians access to the forest. `Community-based forest management was the original solution, but the cost of management was then transferred from the government to the community. The poorest people had to bear a relatively large proportion of the cost.'

Lovett is now looking for `technical solutions in a social context.' And this is what makes the TSD group distinctive. `The marriage of engineers and social scientists is unique to the UT.' When he worked on the Lower Kihansi Hydropower Project in Tanzania in the late 1990s, engineers could scarcely get over their inherent distrust of environmentalists. `Isn't there a phrase for the latter in Dutch …ouwe geitenwollen-sok?' chuckles Lovett. Recently, however, Lovett began working with the Chemistry Department at York in `green chemistry, on policy related to biofuels and climate change in Africa.'

Through his work in the Eastern Arc Forests in Tanzania, Lovett and a team of colleagues have used computer modeling to predict the effect of global warming on Africa.

Already in 2005, newspapers worldwide cautioned: `York scientists warn of dramatic impact of climate change on Africa.' According to their estimations, `Africa is the continent that will suffer the most under global warming.' With that information, new work begins: vulnerability assessments, risk mapping, planning for environmental refugees. Lovett emphasizes `the large-scale social impact.' Currently in Africa there is a remarkable phenomenon - `the greatest shift in land ownership since colonial times.' As land becomes privatized, commercial competitors move in and sequester key natural resources, and access to them. He predicts that `this will lead to water conflict.' TSD, with Lovett at its helm, will continue to concentrate on precisely this type of issue: the socio-economic implications of scientific innovation.

Among the broader implications of climate change is `the impact of the shift to biofuels.' The 2006 EU Biofuels Directive aims for a 10% minimum target by all Member States for the share of biofuels in overall EU transport gasoline and diesel consumption by 2020. Why is this so vital? Lovett gives four reasons: the spate of new competitors (namely, India and China) for fossil fuels; the uncertain state of current fossil fuel suppliers; the chance to help Eastern Europe integrate by encouraging them to grow biofuel crops (like rapeseed, which is used for bio-diesel); and, the opportunity to help African agro-economies which can also supply biofuel crops. Lovett adds the caveat that in encouraging biofuel-related crops, African lands risk losing some of their biodiversity. Here again is evidence of the complicated nature of his work: `That's not to say you shouldn't have these technologies, but do so thoughtfully.'

What about buying green beans from Kenya? Albert Heijn shoppers now take for granted the available cornucopia of fruits and vegetables from all over the globe. Should consumers stop buying those green beans to curb pollution from airplanes transporting them? `You can't go back. Keep supporting those economies.'

And the recent IPCC report? `It's a political process. Evidence is now very strong. Now the mavericks are those who DON”T subscribe to the view that climate change due to human activity is occurring.' Lovett adds, `With climate change, you get different people sitting around the same table. Diverse parties with a common concern: the climate.'

Jon Lovett `In a developing country you must be able to do everything yourself'

Jon Lovett `In a developing country you must be able to do everything yourself'

 

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